Pessimism or Realism?

It is beginning to appear obvious that the United States is heading down a road to defeat the Corona Virus and CoVid-19 through Herd Immunity. If true, it will not likely be a pleasant road to travel and the end of the road will not lead to a past which we lament as “normal”.

Perhaps the US is just too big. Maybe it is our current lack of central leadership. It could possibly be the independent nature of our citizenry or the divisiveness that feeds off that independence. Perhaps the dissemination of information is too compromised or we’re too mobile or we’re too selfish or too ignorant or too fearful. Maybe it is all those things…and more.

So it appears we can’t do what has been done in South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Germany, Iceland, France, Norway, and many other countries we categorize as “free”, and other countries, like China, which are not.

The United States, undirected by our Federal Government, has decided to ride out this virus and the disease it causes with an attitude something along the lines of let the chips fall where they may. Our “curve” will not look like the countries who have decided to limit the infection as a means of curtailing both the mortality and the stress on medical services.

Our “curve” will be long and drawn out, more like a bumpy, gradual slope. The major effort will be to apply treatment to the disease once contracted as a means of reducing mortality rates. However, the strain on our health care system will be enormous. It will become the unstated position that (figuratively) all Americans will catch the virus eventually, barring a vaccination which seems unlikely for years.

We can already see and hear in the Conservative outpouring of dissatisfaction that sickness and death are simply a cost factor in the quest for maintaining a lifestyle. Freedom from disease seems to not come under the general heading of Freedom.  Much of it is wrapped in politics and Fox News profits, buffered with Conservative conspiracy promoters (at rallies to end shut downs there are more professionally made Trump 2020 signs than any other). It may not matter at this point.

Those that have gone along with the concept of reducing the contagion through seclusion and distancing to a point where the virus can be managed through testing and tracking are increasingly being compromised by authority. Staying at home, faithfully washing, and maintaining distance are going to start feeling like just delaying the inevitable. If enough of the population is encouraged to defy the science, the futility will become manifest.

The great irony, of course, is that the beloved lifestyle that the dissenters want to go back to will not be anything like it was before. Likely it will be at best disheartening and at worst disastrous.

Death rates could be socially debilitating, especially as more and more of those advocating “back to normal” become directly affected.  Health care costs will be catastrophic. If Trump and Republicans are removed from power in November, the fight for central control of medical costs will reach a new level. The need for such controls will be bordering on economic survival. If Trump is re-elected I believe our health care system will collapse for a majority of the population. Americans attempting to travel may become international pariah, requiring testing wherever they go and/or being quarantined.

The easiest place where pessimism can fade into realism is the understanding that a protracted impact of the Pandemic will have a greater overall negative impact on the economy then the short term constriction we’re currently experiencing. We will learn to live with the disease, but good economic times rely on reasonable predictability by an influential majority. Under the shadow of a lingering pandemic, the future will hold precious little assurance in its outlook.

Those that are at high risk have the uncomfortable prospect that as isolated as they might try to be, they most likely will catch the disease from those that have abandoned collective solutions. Ultimately they may die because of it. They will be the chips fallen where they may.

The herd will survive, of course, we always knew it would. Just be aware that the herd, and the fields it roams, will not resemble the Nation before 2020. That’s not even the pessimistic part. The real pessimistic view is that because of our discord and lack of leadership we will not end up any better for the experience.