Trump Prediction

I’m not one to publish predictions.  Speculate yes, publish no. More than seven months ago I predicted that Tim Kaine would be named as Hillary Clinton’s running mate in this year’s election.  I’m still feeling pretty good about that one.  Yet, as far flung as that one might have seemed then, making predictions about Donald Trump is probably even more precarious. 

It seems the national media grinder has been engaged in endless predictions about the Donald since he entered the race only to end up incorrect and with the facial egg treatments to prove it. The atmosphere has been more like a game show than political analysis.

That said, I’m going to throw my prognostication into the ring anyway. I can’t help it, though in my case I base my prediction not on some in-depth understanding of political science, but rather on a simple (albeit non-professional) understanding of human behavior. Here it is:

For personal reasons I am somewhat familiar with the psychological condition known as a Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD).  The characteristics of this disorder, in part or in whole, are not uncommon.  However, when the characteristics of this disorder seriously impact both the psychological and physical well being of an individual, or those around them, it is relatively rare.

The conclusion that the “disorder” actually exists in an individual really requires diagnosis by a licensed psychiatrist or psychologist.  Of course that requires that the individual with NPD submit to treatment, which the condition itself makes unlikely.

 Frankly, in my layman’s opinion (and because of it) I believe Donald Trump has a NPD. It may be based only on the common-man axiom of; walks like a duck, smells like a duck, quacks like a duck, etc., but I feel it is close enough that to consider otherwise could be catastrophic for the Nation or the entire World…wow! Really??

Here are the characteristics of NPD that I pulled off the Mayo Clinic website. Other sites post characteristics that are essentially identical:

• Having an exaggerated sense of self-importance
• Expecting to be recognized as superior even without achievements that warrant it
• Exaggerating your achievements and talents
• Being preoccupied with fantasies about success, power, brilliance, beauty or the perfect mate
• Believing that you are superior and can only be understood by or associate with equally special people
• Requiring constant admiration
• Having a sense of entitlement
• Expecting special favors and unquestioning compliance with your expectations
• Taking advantage of others to get what you want
• Having an inability or unwillingness to recognize the needs and feelings of others
• Being envious of others and believing others envy you
• Behaving in an arrogant or haughty manner

Picture Donald Trump and read each one of these characteristics again. Can it get any closer?

Okay, there is a really scary part to this and, I believe, an interesting reason not to find it frightening.

The scary part is that the individual with NPD cannot psychologically take responsibility for his or her actions that are in conflict with the condition. In other words, if something goes wrong they cannot see their role in the problem or failure.  Bold face lies are standard fare.

As such they can become paranoid, looking to blame others for the predicament. In failure to find others to accuse (which is likely) they create imaginary villains. That’s where things get really dicey.  Existing in someone with power is dangerous, in a President….well; I don’t even want to go there.

So what is the not-so-frightening aspect of Donald Trump having NPD?  That’s where my prediction comes in.  I am predicting, at this point a full 6 weeks before the Republican Party Convention, that Donald Trump will not be his party’s nominee.

I believe Trump is already showing an inability to cope with the criticism being leveled against him.  His responses are becoming increasingly defensive and erratic.  All of us would have a problem with this, but for someone with a NPD it is like a poison IV, literally.  I am predicting that Trump will find someone, something, or a combination of both as a reason why he has no choice but to drop out of the race.

If I’m wrong is my prediction dead?  Not really. If his ego is sufficient to carry himself into the general election, then I further predict he will drop out of the general election before November for the same reason, to avoid the highly public pain and erratic behavior associated with having a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. 
 
What will that mean? If my predictions are correct it will be political dynamics that even the most fanciful writer for reality TV could never dream up. But if they try, I’m sure the Donald will audition for the lead role.

Elizabeth Warren through Me

If I could choose a dream job this year it would be to work on Elizabeth Warren’s speech writing staff.  There is no politician left-of-center in this country who can match her ability to present concepts with both conveyed understanding and honest compassion.  Frankly, I feel it is likely there is no one, left, right, or center, who can match her, but then…I have a bias.

That said, no such dream job is coming my way.  However, I figured I could play my little role anyway.  I’d write her a short speech, maybe more than one, and post them to this blog.  

Right now she has chosen to expose early the unstable nature and character of the Republican Presidential Nominee and in doing so expose the Republican Party itself, as their candidate is of their creation.  I want to join in, even in this very small way.

"Elizabeth Warren" on Trump, May 2016

Broadcast May 17^th, Donald Trump ended his friendly Megan Kelly interview with these words; “…if I don’t win, I will consider it to be a total and complete waste of time, energy, and money”. Think about it. What is this man saying? You could not find a more shallow narrative, in this great land, for someone seeking its highest office.

Why do any of us do anything?  Sure we want prosperity, we want security, we want to raise our children to survive our lives, hopefully with joys that far surpass our own. We want to feel our labors have value. Conservative and liberal, black and white, rich and poor, or the middle class, we all set our goals and expectations. In this we have more in common than we have differences.

With these efforts, or even struggles, there are successes and failures.  Ya win some and ya lose some. Who’s not familiar with that? But who are the real losers?

The young single mother who strives to raise her children using whatever help available is not a loser, the banker who lost his deal on principal is not a loser, the news producer who suffered a loss in ratings by choosing to ignore untruths is not a loser, the student saddled with debt who struggles to find a career is not a loser. 

We are supremely blessed to live in a nation with almost incalculable success relative to the rest of the world and history.  We still fail and often, but the resilience by which we struggle and manage the many changes we face become our finest moments.  It is why I believe that America is greater today than whatever time it is that Donald Trump thinks he wants to take us back to.

Make America Great Again is really only a slogan fashioned for reality TV.

Trump may end up being one of our finest moments.  To the extent the voters of this Country rally behind all his opponents and also against those that support him at every level of Government we may be entering a new era of optimism and unification…a grinding end to a Cold Civil War.

Like most Americans, I am tired of systemic and heartless discrimination, tired of people convinced to be scared of anyone not like themselves, tired of the denial of science, and tired of feeling apprehensive with those who may not think just as I do.  This tiresome American is what Donald Trump would take us back to. It isn’t winning.

What Trump was saying in his final comment to Megan Kelly was if I don’t win, then screw you America, you weren’t worth it. I’d have done better using my time, energy, and money picking up a few more foreclosed properties.

Donald Trump, considering his current position as leader of the Republican Party and nominee for President, is the ultimate loser.  He's a loser because he has no concept of what winning is. In fact, his narrow, caustic, narcissistic personality will never…never allow him to actually win. He personifies the lowest, most hideous human characteristic short of sadism – insatiable self-interest.

The greater sadness, even danger is to those who are choosing to emulate what Trump represents.  Please pay attention and realize that all your efforts have meaning, as do the honest efforts of those you encounter. Otherwise, you run the risk of losing in life.

 

 

 

Reason for Hope

Hope and Change was the Obama theme in 2008. Had we been able to see the future it might have been more aptly stated as Triage and Resuscitate.

What he accomplished by leading the nation away from financial catastrophe, to winning the first critical step toward national healthcare, and applying respected rationality to international affairs will make him historically relevant and a source of pride for most Americans alive today.

But what about the hope and change goal he first declared by addressing the Democratic convention in 2004? Remember: “no blue states, no red states, just the United States of America”.

Perhaps his slogan in 2008 should have been Yes We Could (?) instead of Yes We Can. His major political failure of not leading the Democratic Party to be competitive in the 2010 off-season election, a census year, cost him any ability to turn back the divisiveness and inequality that pervades American society.  And so it goes.

So now we have Donald Trump, which newsmen, pundits, and polls are suggesting could, in fact, be the next President.  Trump, a creation of both the divisiveness and the lack of solutions to it, should be no surprise. But he is a surprise…and maybe that’s a good thing.

I still can’t get myself close to believing he could win in November. It would be just too surreal. Trump makes George W. Bush look like an articulate genius.  His ignorance is mind boggling, nearly Sara Palin quality.  I’m not saying he’s stupid like Palin. However going to a quality University isn’t very meaningful when you spend the next 46 years reading nothing more perceptive than a balance sheet or longer than a twitter feed.

Did anyone not see him struggle to read his proclamation to ban all Muslims from entering the country? The only line he was comfortable with was the inane end punctuation “…until we find out what the hell is goin’ on”.  Five dollars says that’s the only line he wrote.  

The real fear I have, as I have written previously, is that he doesn’t lose big.  Because of the uphill climb Hillary Clinton has to motivate voters, she might end up winning no differently than Obama did in 2012, an electoral victory with little down ballot changes. Without at least a Democratic super-majority in the Senate this nation will continue to tread water.

The Republican Party to the rescue!!! What me worry?

The insanity of Donald Trump has been obvious to Republicans for nearly a year and they haven’t been shy to admit it.  Then when reality TV suddenly became reality the Republican political establishment had a choice; support him or throw him under the bus. It was touch and go for a while, but thankfully they chose the former.

Republican politicians, almost without exception, have now actively or tacitly rallied around the Donald.  They think; well the polls don’t look too bad, we sure hate Hillary, he could turn Presidential.  It’s like they’re putting icing on a cow pie and saying it looks pretty good, might as well dig in.

What they’ve done by not throwing Trump under the bus is attached him to every single Republican running for office, from dog catcher to Governor to US Senator.  Every quote of Donald Trump’s will be their quote.  It’s quite possible that many Republicans will be caught between a rock and a hard place having to answer for every idiot statement he makes or Twitters, or for that matter every absurd and asinine comment he has already made.

The Democratic Party better take notice and soon.

I expect Hillary Clinton to be a great President, better than her husband, clearly the stronger personality between the two…more intelligent besides. The fact that she is a woman will impact the nation in even a more positive way than did Obama’s race. What I’m not expecting is her turning into a great campaigner, which she is not.

But who knows. Hope springs eternal.  Maybe the Donald will get a little help from Hillary in deconstructing the Republican Party.  I, for one, would like to see the GOP rebuilt, but without the Rush Limbaughs of the world eating away at its foundation, like so many self-absorbed termites.

Reality Check

We all experience moments when the present becomes inescapable, where we can’t imagine it away.  Such must be the awareness faced by the condemned once their execution becomes imminent or perhaps of a survivor in the desert as he drinks his last drops of water.  This is really happening, one might painfully acknowledge.

With his overwhelming win in Indiana, Donald Trump is now going to be one of two human beings to vie for the leadership of some 330 million Americans.  Donald Trump.  Donald Trump?? Sure we all knew the possibility, we observed the show, but…Donald Trump….really??

For me it was like looking down at the bottom of a dry cup and feeling sand between my lips. This is really going to happen??  Yes, America…it really is.

Let me point out that even through my incredulity I had welcomed his candidacy.  I even voted for him in the Virginia Primary with the thought that a vote for the Donald would do more to undermine Conservative extremism than a vote for Hillary.  Hopefully, I was right. 

Still, I’m concerned as to why he has appealed to so many.  Could I be so wrong about this Country or the acumen of its citizens? Why can’t these individuals, including many in the news media, see what is so plainly obvious to me?

I find I am not worried about Trump becoming President, not at this point.  I am, however, worried that he won’t be defeated by historic percentages.  A reasonably close race that doesn’t result in a major turnover of legislators will be a victory for insanity, regardless of having the first woman in the White House. 

There is a desperate need for new perspectives on how Americans can and should relate to one another. If there wasn’t Donald Trump would not have gotten further than his hotel escalator.

What can I do? Well…here’s my vow:  I’m not going to cower when confronted with blind stupidity or lemming-like rhetoric.  The choice is going to be between Trump and Hillary, and I believe picking Hillary is as excellent as choosing Trump is nuts.

Hillary Clinton has been vilified by Conservatives, primarily white men, for two decades.  What Barack Obama has had to face for 8 years, she has experienced, at varying levels, for 22.  Like Obama, whose main fault for Conservative men was his race, Clinton’s primary drawback is her gender. It is a fear that the America of the “Greatest Generation” of white men is being replaced by people that don’t look like them. They find threats and conspiracies around every corner.

Radio talk show hosts and Republican politicians alike have found profit in using and encouraging this fear for their own benefit.  Not a single politician fits the Republican Party they have crafted better than Donald Trump. It is contemptuous that they should be surprised by his success.

Still, good people I know who cannot tolerate Trump will tell me that Hillary is dishonest. They don’t know why they think she is, but they do. They have unwittingly sipped the Kool-Aid. When pressed they’ll reference the slams du’jour, computer servers and Benghazi. 

Pointing out that her attempt to secure her own email was a common practice (used by Republican princes such as Colin Powell) or that neither she nor anyone else in the Obama Administration had any role in conspiring to create or cover up the Benghazi attack (as confirmed by endless investigations) only results in an abrupt end to the discussion.

I won’t be deterred.

I’ll admit that I am bias to the notion that having a female President is an important, historic milestone for this Country.  I’ll also admit that the 22 year role Hillary Clinton has played in national politics feels tiresome to me.  I don’t even like the name Hillary.

That said, she is the only one I can conceive of her gender who can move this Country away from the bigotry and wealth concentration that Trump represents.  She has the potential to do what Bernie can only talk about.

My opinion of Hillary was crystallized on October 22^nd of last year.  I started watching the Congressional Benghazi 3^rd degree of Hillary that morning.  I watched 3 hours of grilling into the early afternoon and, even though I was impressed with her abilities to take on the litany of absurd attacks, I’d had enough. Later, after an early dinner, I turned on the news to see how the event went and was blown away to find that it was still in progress. I turned C-Span back on and watch for another 3 hours till it ended.

She handled aggressive, combative congressmen with intelligence and poise.  She took for 11 hours what Trump couldn’t do for 30 minutes.   If she can run her campaign with the same firm resolve, absent of political doublespeak, hyperbole and emotion, then I think she will get her overwhelming victory, which will be a victory for us all.

Then perhaps we can sit back and watch her appoint Barack Obama to the Supreme Court.

Cut Donald Some Slack

Once again the established world is coming down hard on Trump because of the latest utterances being emitted from his unhinged jaw.  This time, however, the shrill tones being wailed come from opposite ends of the socio-political spectrum in, of all things, harmony.

Okay, everyone is aware that in a Chris Mathews interview the Donald said some kind of punishment should be meted out to pregnant woman who go through with an abortion.  

Any reasonable observer would also know that his response was 98% kneejerk.  Asked the question he paused and paused again, his cerebral search function downloading anything which would tell him the most evasive answer with the least consequence.

It settled on abortion bad, so the answer had to be punishment good.

As what has happened before with the Donald, and in all fairness to almost countless others running for public office, he quickly fired off a correction after being dummy slapped by his “team” leaders.  They poured a bucket of it was taken out of context, I didn’t really say it, I obviously meant doctors, I cherish all women on the fire.  Then he retired to the shadows to see if the whole adventure actually worked to his benefit.  Modus operandi.

The Pro-Choice folks of course stepped in immediately with their outrage. Considering it was Donald Trump they were attacking, their righteous anger sounded more like platitudes than the continuance of a serious debate.

But what was up with these Pro-Life, Right to Life, love of life anti-abortion action groups, including the remaining two Republican Presidential candidates?  They all hurled every nasty epithet they could at the Donald saying he doesn’t represent their position.  “This is not who we are” the groups tweeted, “…of course the mother should not be punished” said both Ted C and John K. 

Now, wait a minute.  Just how wrong was the Trumpster?

Since 1973 and the rise of the Conservative American Theocracy, the Pro-Life crowd has called abortion murder.  The lunatic fringe of that movement has gone so far as to try, convict, and carry out the executions of doctors who aggressively support Pro-Choice positions.  The movement makes no bones about restricting health services to women in pursuing their agenda (a punishment in itself), nor will it address the fact that their ultimate success only affects poor women or women of limited means, essentially a discriminatory penalty.

All criminal law is society’s attempt to externalize ethics for the greater good.  What is good and what isn’t is the constant struggle of our domestic politics and courts.

The entire Pro-Life effort is based on a moral imperative which ranks any successful abortion as a crime.  The hypocrisy of saying that, under a state law outlawing abortion, only the doctor would be violating the ethic and thus the law is painfully clear.  You can’t have it both ways.

The reality is that poor ol’ Donald unwittingly gave the Pro-Life position out loud.  I’m guessing he probably doesn’t give a flying fig one way or the other.

The irony is that the Pro-Life enthusiasts have no problem penalizing women before and during an abortion. They’re doing it in Conservative run states all over the Country today.  Why should anyone think that, given the power, they would have any problem penalizing a woman after an abortion?  If you do, Cruz is your man.

I’m beginning to think it’s no accident that Ted Cruz is the personification of Snydley Whiplash minus the mustache.  I just can’t get that image out of my head.

Trump's Manhood?

I have enjoyed the Cheshire cat position of favoring Trump because I assumed his candidacy would cause the dysfunctional Republican Party to implode.  No more. 

After the February 25th “debate” and the endless playground rhetoric culminating with last night’s March 3^rd fecal assault on this Nation and the World, I can no longer take it. All four of these men are repulsive, nauseating, vile, abhorrent, detestable, gut-wrenching….am I missing something?

Moreover, the sty in which these human swine have chosen to wallow is equally repugnant. That would include “conservative” media, notably Conservative talk radio, and that supportive portion of the Republican electorate which has more in common with David Duke and reality TV than any historical Republican laurels.

Although it might be reduced to the level of titter and twitter, the seminal moment in last night’s debate came early.  During the past week or so Marco Rubio, et al, had decided to have his campaign go Trump. I felt it wasn’t working because in doing so he appeared even less Presidential than he did before, were that possible.  I should have known better, although I believe I remained half-right.

Rubio’s team decided they needed to take the Donald down. However, intentional or not, they decided to employ kamikaze tactics.  If their goal was to goat Trump’s ego into self-destruction they may have succeeded, even if Marco’s candidacy went down in flames doing so.  All the normal insults weren’t working so they were trying hair color, facial makeup, cowardly incontinence, and (what the hell…might as well go all the way) penis size.

So there we have it. Trump could not resist, I guess no more than Rubio could. This time the messenger deserved to be shot, but Trump decided instead to defend his penis to the world. There was no problem (there), he said, “…I guarantee it”. I wish I knew Latin, because there’s got to be some ancient pithy quote out there that puts all this together.

So now we’re faced with should we believe him?  Forget about his tax returns, we need some objective verification on the size of Trump's manhood.  Polling amongst his numerous significant others (married or otherwise) might work.  Instead of bland numbers, the Republican electorate would probably prefer check-off boxes with pictures; cucumber, banana, jalapeño, or wine cork for example. Is he circumcised or not, and does that make a difference?  What about Marco and the other two contenders, how do they compare? There are just so many questions that need to be answered.

Well, I’m not going to wait for the answers to those critical questions, any more than I could lift my eyes to the TV last night as I heard what I heard. 

I long ago lost respect for the current Republican Party, its racially bias obsession with undermining the Obama Administration to the point of sacrificing any kind of national wellbeing.  The issue of health care alone strips that party of any credibility as representatives of the Nation as a whole. But now I have also lost any charitably opinion for those in the general electorate who are duped by these self-interested egos. 

The sports team mentality toward politics now governing the Republican Party and its supporters, which benefits only the team owners, deserves no consideration…at least not on my part. The Democrats had better get their act together because hope is no longer a word in the GOP lexicon, and with post-Obama Dems it’s on life-support.

We’re a Nation that desperately needs that little boy to step out of the crowd and point out that the Emperor has no clothes.  Someone of consequence has to convince an electorate that these Republican candidates are all stark naked, that their imaginary garbs will do nothing to improve the lives of the American people, and that the Party they represent has lost its grip on reality. However, it will do no good if in the revelation of that nudity the Republican electorate is only interested in the parts that are displayed.

Adjusting

When bowling a player may find his ball is drifting to one side or the other, often missing the headpin.  Logic might incline the bowler to compensate; if I’m rolling far left, I need to move my body to the right. However, professionals will argue that the player should move their stance toward the drift to adjust and correct.  Being counterintuitive will more likely brings success.

I somehow doubt Hillary Clinton bowls. However, I suspect that if she did her advisors might be telling her to move in the opposite direction of her previous bad deliveries. That seems to be her response to Bernie Sanders’ populous appeal.  If highlighting her differences with Bernie isn’t working then double down twice as hard.

As the presumptive favorite, Hillary’s has routinely been missing the headpin with each challenge she has faced in her attempts to generate enthusiasm for her quest to secure the Democratic presidential nomination.  Such failures may be given short shrift by her campaign due to continued confidence that when all the votes (primarily delegate votes) are counted she’ll prevailed.

The real danger is that her actions in this primary may adversely affect the outcome of the general election.  At the very least they might cripple her Presidency by crippling the success of Democrats in Senate, House, Governor, and state legislature contests.

The first and major misdirection has been her failure to understand the Bernie Sanders phenomenon.

This was beautifully illustrated by one of the last questions asked of her in the February 4^th debate on MSNBC.  She was asked if she would consider Bernie as her running mate should she get the nomination.  Her response was dismissive, again moving away.  She should have said: absolutely, I would place him near the top of any list of candidates I might consider. He is insightful, consistent with my values, and I hope he would remain one of my closest advisors. It would also need to be (and should be) the truth, or close to it.

Because of her trivializing response, she may, regretfully, not be asked this question again…a lost opportunity.

My son, a two tour Iraqi veteran, now a student, who has been for years particularly non-political, recently posted on Facebook that he had displayed his first bumper sticker ever: Feel the Bern. It is simply a current reality that Bernie’s supporters love him, and for some very good reasons.

Sanders has elevated a message of empowerment to a National level. He has become, for this election cycle, the rational counter-balance to the power brokers who use the Republican Party to control the less educated, irrational, or just plain stupid electorate with fear mongering. He has done it with the rhetoric so many hoped would come out of Obama’s mouth, but never did.

More than that, to younger and relatively educated voters, men and women, Bernie represents the antithesis of the curmudgeon grandfather who watches Fox News and says that anything governmental (other than the military) is bullshit.  Saunders is more like the Grandfather who works as a college professor and throughout his life has been consistent, perceptive, independent, and admired. He’s the one they not only look forward to eating Thanksgiving dinner with, but also the one they want to spend time with after the meal.

Could Sanders win the Presidency? Not likely against a moderate Republican who could, with half a billion dollars, turn him into a doddering old Communist in the pivotal states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida (where the entire election will be decided). Perhaps he could win against the lunacy of a Donald Trump, but even with Trump, Bernie might be just one terrorist attack away from handing the keys to the asylum over to the insane.

So how have Hillary and Bill Clinton responded to this heady yet emotional following for Sanders?  They have decided to use the old line political hack jobs that have been the political modus operandi for generations: attack the man. This is Hillary moving away from the strike zone and I would guess that she, her husband and advisors are currently trying to come up with anything they can to undermine Sanders’ candidacy, which will move her even further off the mark.

Hillary needs to legitimately become part of the Bernie Revolution, but add the construction that Sanders leaves out.  For example; instead of attacking him for suggesting a universal single-payer health care system, agree with him that a single payer system may in fact be the final step on the journey begun by Obamacare. She is the one to continue that journey by reintroducing the Public Option that the medical insurance industry (via the Republican Party) kept out of the Affordable Health Care Act.

With her considerable wins on Super Tuesday Clinton may calm her rhetoric (if she would just stop shouting it would help).  It is to her advantage if Sanders stays in the race, but only if she begins to feel the bern herself.  For Hillary to be an effective president she needs to do more than just win.  She needs to bring out an electorate which will put her in office, but also make changes down the ticket and force an evolution in the Republican Party.