Switcharoo

Why do you believe Donald Trump?  I’m not speaking to Republican bureaucrats, Fox News personalities, Christian Conservatives, QAnon nut jobs, or white supremacists. I’m directing that question to Democrats, the Democratic leadership, and non-Fox media. Because Trump says something often enough and loud enough makes it so? Is that correct?

Trump and his Republican cult have been proclaiming for too long that he created the “greatest (US) economy in the history of the Nation”, only to have it woefully snatched away by the “China” virus. Why haven’t I seen his claim of economic prowess challenged by Democrats with the kind of ferocity equal to the fantasy?

US Presidents have very little short term impact on an economy.  The Economy and various markets are like a mammoth oil tanker. They can be torpedoed or otherwise disabled quickly by an unforeseen disaster or accumulated negligence. However, for the captain and crew to make a radical change in course, for better or worse, that ship is going coast in the same direction for some time and distance.

So it goes with a change of Administrations in Washington, especially if it also includes a change in a governing Party.  The most dramatic example was the collapsing economy transitioning from George Bush to Barack Obama in 2009. During Obama’s first year the GDP went negative, the unemployment rate (already a high 7.3%) increased another 34%. The stock market (using the DOW as an index) dropped over 50%.

Trump’s first year in office was no different, and yet also the complete opposite.

The Obama Administration turned it around, constantly attacked by Republicans for shepherding a “too slow” recovery.  The reality is that it began the longest period of sustained economic growth in the country’s history. During the remaining 7 years the stock market increased 203% and unemployment dropped from 9.9% to 4.7%. Just as important, the wounds of mistrust in financial systems were mostly healed.

The first year of the Trump Administration saw the unemployment rate continue to fall to 4.1% and the stock market climbed another 32%.  Conservatives, Republicans, and Fox News were quick to give Trump credit. This was actually the end of the Obama Economy.

What did Trump do to deserve this adoration?  Nothing! His first year was spent trying to dismantle Obama social programs, defend his Russian assisted campaign, anger allies, find money for his wall, travel to and pontificate at “rallies”, Tweet, and watch TV.

It wasn’t until December 22, 2017 that he signed the great Republican Tax giveaway, for which his Republican Congress argued would bring real “life” to the US Economy (albeit with a wink and a nod).

What happened?  Over the next two years, up to the point of the Pandemic, the Unemployment Rate dropped a whopping 0.5%, from 4.1% to 3.6%.  The stock market was actually lower by the end of 2018 and had “skyrocketed” a massive 8% before it fell off the Pandemic cliff. GDP remained basically unchanged. If Obama had presided over similar results during his second and third year, Mitch McConnell and the gang would have been gleefully heating tar and plucking chicken feathers.

Of course I can’t make comparisons regarding what has occurred in 2020. The Corona Virus crippled economies around the globe. However, thanks to the anemic and incredibly stupid response by Trump, our recovery will lag the rest of the world and we will be paying a price for many months to come.

Once again, a Republican President will be handing a Democrat successor an economy the size and odor of a three story cow pile. Yet once again, Republicans will claim the mantle as the Party for Economic growth, and will minimize and disparage the recovery as inadequate. The real tragedy, it appears, is that too many Democrats will believe them.