Predicting Uncertainty

Okay…it’s easy, too easy to observe and comment on the confounded eccentricity and unstable idiocy of Donald Trump. It’s often a problem for me. It can become a trap, making it difficult to see that there is actually a road cradling all those potholes.

Sure, there currently is a dearth of leadership, but many governors across the Country have stepped in and taken charge. They, by contrast, have been competent in their efforts. The understandable problem, however, is that each approach is generally unique. It’s not reassuring, for example, to see Kentucky successfully dealing with the crisis while neighboring Tennessee is flushing reality down the toilet. That, along with Trump’s self interest, is the imperceptible boogeyman in this national nightmare.

What all people want in life is certainty. We’re all sold it, governments tout it, and religions thrive on it; e.g. .We all know, however, that when it comes to the future, and even interpretations of the past, certainty doesn’t exist. It can’t. We can only have certainty in the present moment. Only that kind of almost meditative awareness has the ability to vanquish anxieties that grow uncontrollably and proportionately with uncertainty.

As certainty in the future is impossible, what individuals, economies, markets, governments, and organizations of all kinds actually long for is predictability. The more comfortable we are in our ability to predict an outcome the closer we come to the unattainable fantasy of certainty. The further we are away from it the more life can evolve into stress and panic.

What is so important to note is that the accuracy of a prediction is less important than the comfort one feels about its accuracy. Predictions and outcomes are constantly changing with changing circumstances, even in Science. Equity markets, for example, rise, fall, then rise again always based on the comfort (or discomfort) of predictions, which in turn are based on underlying circumstances existing in a world of uncertainty.

Sound philosophically complex? Not really. Although it feels like homes built on shifting sands, it’s what we need as human beings to deal with that over which we have little or no control…which is just about everything.

What we don’t need is someone with a Narcissistic Personality Disorder and access to mass media to feed worried individuals a buffet of knee jerk predictions that have little basis in reality; “we have it under control”, “it will all wash through”, “it will disappear with the season”, “our numbers are beautiful”, “I knew it before they gave it a name”, and so on. Trump, as we should have expected, was the wrong person at the wrong time.

There are reasonable predictions that could have and still can be shared with the American people. With reasonable and honest predictions, come stability, cooperation, and order. Life can start to feel doable. Such as:

-         ---   If everyone on the planet would remain isolated from other people this pandemic would be essentially under control in about two weeks, as we could identify all those infected and most asymptomatic carriers. Even if not realistic, the closer we can get to that goal the shorter the duration will be.

-        ---   Even without a vaccination, the historical duration of pandemics is measured in months; with a vaccination it would be even shorter. Once some control is obtained, as the Chinese have done, we should competently and successfully live with it until the vaccine is developed.  It will end.

-        ---  We have the opportunity to work internationally with allies and competitors alike toward a common goal. To do so could leave the world more aligned than it ever has been and perhaps save many more lives than the pandemic takes.

-        --   The expected duration of this pandemic does not equate to periods that preceded other great economic downturns that undermined economic instability. We should have a realistic expectation that a bounce back to a healthier economy will initially mirror the angle of the recent decline.

-       ---    After this pandemic is over this Country and the World generally will be a better place, at least for a while, as we will have a better understanding of the vulnerabilities all people face without regard to nationality. That has been the critical missing ingredient, for example, in the effort to deal with climate change.

There is real tragedy for those directly impacted by this and other crises. What we want is to run toward those tragedies with empathy, not run away from them in panic. It will be necessary that honesty and transparency, things our Federal Government has recently cast into a conflagration of self interest, be resurrected like a Phoenix. There really can be a lot to look forward to.