Predicting Uncertainty

Okay…it’s easy, too easy to observe and comment on the confounded eccentricity and unstable idiocy of Donald Trump. It’s often a problem for me. It can become a trap, making it difficult to see that there is actually a road cradling all those potholes.

Sure, there currently is a dearth of leadership, but many governors across the Country have stepped in and taken charge. They, by contrast, have been competent in their efforts. The understandable problem, however, is that each approach is generally unique. It’s not reassuring, for example, to see Kentucky successfully dealing with the crisis while neighboring Tennessee is flushing reality down the toilet. That, along with Trump’s self interest, is the imperceptible boogeyman in this national nightmare.

What all people want in life is certainty. We’re all sold it, governments tout it, and religions thrive on it; e.g. .We all know, however, that when it comes to the future, and even interpretations of the past, certainty doesn’t exist. It can’t. We can only have certainty in the present moment. Only that kind of almost meditative awareness has the ability to vanquish anxieties that grow uncontrollably and proportionately with uncertainty.

As certainty in the future is impossible, what individuals, economies, markets, governments, and organizations of all kinds actually long for is predictability. The more comfortable we are in our ability to predict an outcome the closer we come to the unattainable fantasy of certainty. The further we are away from it the more life can evolve into stress and panic.

What is so important to note is that the accuracy of a prediction is less important than the comfort one feels about its accuracy. Predictions and outcomes are constantly changing with changing circumstances, even in Science. Equity markets, for example, rise, fall, then rise again always based on the comfort (or discomfort) of predictions, which in turn are based on underlying circumstances existing in a world of uncertainty.

Sound philosophically complex? Not really. Although it feels like homes built on shifting sands, it’s what we need as human beings to deal with that over which we have little or no control…which is just about everything.

What we don’t need is someone with a Narcissistic Personality Disorder and access to mass media to feed worried individuals a buffet of knee jerk predictions that have little basis in reality; “we have it under control”, “it will all wash through”, “it will disappear with the season”, “our numbers are beautiful”, “I knew it before they gave it a name”, and so on. Trump, as we should have expected, was the wrong person at the wrong time.

There are reasonable predictions that could have and still can be shared with the American people. With reasonable and honest predictions, come stability, cooperation, and order. Life can start to feel doable. Such as:

-         ---   If everyone on the planet would remain isolated from other people this pandemic would be essentially under control in about two weeks, as we could identify all those infected and most asymptomatic carriers. Even if not realistic, the closer we can get to that goal the shorter the duration will be.

-        ---   Even without a vaccination, the historical duration of pandemics is measured in months; with a vaccination it would be even shorter. Once some control is obtained, as the Chinese have done, we should competently and successfully live with it until the vaccine is developed.  It will end.

-        ---  We have the opportunity to work internationally with allies and competitors alike toward a common goal. To do so could leave the world more aligned than it ever has been and perhaps save many more lives than the pandemic takes.

-        --   The expected duration of this pandemic does not equate to periods that preceded other great economic downturns that undermined economic instability. We should have a realistic expectation that a bounce back to a healthier economy will initially mirror the angle of the recent decline.

-       ---    After this pandemic is over this Country and the World generally will be a better place, at least for a while, as we will have a better understanding of the vulnerabilities all people face without regard to nationality. That has been the critical missing ingredient, for example, in the effort to deal with climate change.

There is real tragedy for those directly impacted by this and other crises. What we want is to run toward those tragedies with empathy, not run away from them in panic. It will be necessary that honesty and transparency, things our Federal Government has recently cast into a conflagration of self interest, be resurrected like a Phoenix. There really can be a lot to look forward to.   

America, This is No War

It seems now popular to use a metaphor of war to describe the national response to the Coronavirus pandemic. The “new” Trump (new only in the fact he is holding regular press conferences for the first time in his presidency) actually said in one conference I watched (albeit under his breath) that he was a “war President” (I believe he meant wartime President). The craziness of that concept did not escape me.

Nevertheless, the media and other politicians have taken up the metaphor with gusto. It should be noted that the only War they or Trump are referring to is WWII. This was the War in which most of these politicians grew up watching Romanized depictions on TVs and movies, as oppose to all those other “little”, unpleasant wars that could be turned off nightly with a push of a TV off button, such as Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq.

The idea, of course, is that we need to “recruit” national involvement in a conflict. They are suggesting that the American people need to rally in a patriotic way, as what occurred with the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941. New York Governor Cuomo actually compared pandemic responses to "WWII missiles”, not considering the fact that the US didn’t use missiles in WWII. It is a Romantic application of history that has no place with this new reality. Its use is the foundation for Trump’s manic insistence to assess blame for the outbreak and divert attention from his own actions.

This infection is not a war with an enemy of defined resources. Trump is no “wartime President” and has, along with most of his supporters, shown themselves to be ineffectual in dealing with the crisis. Like Keystone Cops called in to bring law and order, they have mostly wrought confusion and dangerous delays. It would be humorous were there not so much peril to their folly. At this point I think it unlikely they will ever be able to fully gain the Nation’s confidence.

If there is any war in progress, it is the three year war waged by Trump and the Republican Party against Science. Good Science demands that ego, cupidity, and exploitation yield to objectivity, analytics, and ethical behavior. Trump is so far off the mark I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him tossing rolls of toilet paper to the Press Corps, as he threw paper towels to Puerto Ricans.

His action in 2018 to eliminate the National Security Council’s Directorate for Global Health and Security, mandated to prepare the Nation to respond to a pandemic (simply because it had been created by Barack Obama - his psychotic nemesis) was criminal, as any crime would be before a victim surfaces.  

His singular inability to truly focus on anything but himself has, and continues to, thwart the most important element of a pandemic…it is international. Donald Trump’s America First has clearly come to mean America Alone. This has been obvious for the past three years as it has impacted such things as immigration, commerce, and climate change, but the negative ramifications to those issues are not even close to its dire impact on this pandemic. This is true not only for the health aspects of this crisis, but also for the economic consequences.

Donald Trump will not improve and he will be held accountable. But what we need now is the application of Science combined with international cooperation, not declarations of war. We need clear communications from trusted sources. The world will be so better off if somehow the media, Congress, and the scientific community would stop deferring to Trump as if he were some kind of leader.

C’mon Obama, step into World and earn your damn Nobel Peace Prize.   

Wingless Phoenix

If there was ever a time when reasonably informed and concerned Americans should be weeping over the National tragedy that is Donald Trump it should be right now. What is it with these Republican leaders that they can turn nearly universal unity in the face of a common enemy into partisan gamesmanship, to meet what are essentially personal goals.

In September 2001 George Bush had the backing not only of a suddenly united country, but an entire world that would support the United States in its chosen direction.  He then proceeded to promote division among nations and Americans by turning his focus toward, as we have since learned, control of oil reserves and long desired regime change. What an ass.

As a result hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Afghans have died during and as a result of the conflicts, untold numbers injured, a majority of their populations psychologically maimed, an entire region in turmoil, not to mention the thousands of Americans killed and wounded…and for what?

By the end of Bush’s administration the economy had been left sick and unattended, and our Nation was steeped in a sociological war zone, embraced by Republican Conservatism. The extraordinary opportunity that had been given to Bush, the rising of a Phoenix out of the ashes, was squandered.

Now this narcissistic clown, who was misfortunately elevated to world leadership, is doing the same thing. Although we should hardly be surprised, the calamity of his ineptitude and self interest remains appalling.

His pathetic reading of his struggling advisor’s speeches does little to dissuade the damage he has already managed to inflict. His focus on equity markets, his denials of severity, his contradicting professionals, his need to assess blame (first to China, then Europe, and now Obama), his blatant personal concerns (exempting Britain and Ireland…please), his initial consultations with Congressional Republicans only, and such stupid things as wearing his political cap while supposedly representing the entire Nation has been atrocious.   

His wholesale and psychotic dishonesty may be the best example in what precisely a leader should NOT do to rally a nation. He fools no one and at best gets his die hard supporters to just dismiss his knee-jerk lies as Trumpian hyperbola. However, faith in centralized information is critical during a National emergency. If there are any adults in the White House today they need to step up and tell us all to ignore Trump and find the truth elsewhere.

Think of it, the entire World…the entire World…has a common enemy, let alone Conservatives and Liberals or Republicans and Democrats. How fortunate it would be to bring people of many nations together.

Our non-authoritarian political system carries with it advantages and disadvantages. We cannot do what the Chinese have done to force the population to work in unison. There is no doubt, as is currently evidenced, that they can manage the threat posed by this virulent disease. However, their socio-political structure will likely be no better off for it.

In the United States we need real non-partisan leadership to rally all Americans to find common ground in voluntarily supporting the battle against this aggressive virus. The US should embrace International cooperation, not promote isolation and assess blame.

We have the potential to inflict not only the termination of this pandemic, which will ultimately happen, but also bring together competing individuals and entire nations that will, like a rising Phoenix, leave an even better, safer, and freer world than the virus found.

However, this sniveling, ignorant, self-absorbed, scum of a President will cut the wings off that bird because he intuitively believes that wallowing in the ashes is better than risking his ego. What a crying shame.

Cooling the Bern

It’s obvious that Bernie Sanders has centered his “revolution” on the issue of health care. It is his lumberjack T-Bone on the plate, and corporate greed, wealth inequality, free trade, and political establishments, e.g., are just so many sides on the menu. It is for good reason, as the search for relatable topics is the mission of every politician, and nothing beats health care for entering the reality of every American.

It has also been the major friction point between the so called Democratic “Moderates” and “Progressives” as was often painfully apparent in the season of “debates” we just endured. Now that it appears the Moderates have prevailed in the body of Joe Biden, it is time, in fact long overdue, to explain to the American people that Joe and Bernie are much closer in their answer to the American health care conundrum, and equally just as far away from explaining it at all.

On the upcoming and possibly last debate, this is what I’d like to hear from Joe Biden. He needs to explain why both he and Bernie are essentially on the same track when it comes to health care, and also, perhaps, to apologize why they have both been so brain dead in enlightening the Nation to that fact:

 “The law Republicans tagged as “Obamacare” is universally referred by we politicians and media as the ACA or Affordable Care Act. The actual name for the law is The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.  The irony in the abbreviated title is that the part which survived (i.e. Affordable Care) is precisely the part the act failed to include. Any success it has had reflects the part that was directed toward universal coverage or “Patient Protection”. Universal coverage is what Bernie here talks about when he often says healthcare is a human right.

However, the real issue is cost. If health care costs were low, truly affordable, we wouldn’t have problems with insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, or health care providers. It wouldn’t even be a subject of debate. People could pay for it without distress or easily be subsidized. However, it is not affordable, and the Republican alternative, which is the status quo, only supports Americans paying twice as much, or more, as people around the world do for equivalent care.

Bernie’s assessment of trillions of dollars for a single payer system is based on that outrageous fact. Quite simply costs have to come down first and we need the Government working in concert with the Market to make it happen.

Every insurance company that represents a large group of individuals, perhaps a large company, negotiates the price of every medical service, device, or medication. This is not new. What I am advocating is a Public Option, which when combined with the largest medical insurance service in the country, Medicare, can set prices and challenge the insurance companies to negotiate down costs even for small businesses or individuals. Medicare, plus those enrolling in a pre-65 Medicare option, combined with legislative empowerment, would be a block too large for the medical service providers to avoid.

Over time insurance companies would either have to compete on price or go out of business. As opposed to a single payer system, as exists for example in Britain, it would be more likely that the US would evolve into a Japanese model (which we helped to create after WW2) where insurance companies (including those publicly owned) handle the administration of health care with strict controls over cost. This is one of several successful universal plans that Bernie refers to when he says “the United States is the only industrialized nation without universal coverage”, but yet he chooses not to detail when advocating his single payer system.

The object is to get from point A to point B. The Public Option was in the original Obamacare law, but ultimately did not get enough Democratic support to overcome Republican opposition. Thus the word “Affordable” in the title became a misnomer. Bernie’s supporters should welcome the concept of a public option added to Obamacare and be proud that their enthusiasm for Bernie’s grand cause for universal affordable health care will help make it happen.

It’s not going to be easy, because profits will drop for all players in our health care system. However, what Republicans want is unsustainable. They want to feed us our seed corn for short term gain. A Public Option would truly be revolutionary and all Democrats need to come together to make it happen.”

Jill Biden for First Lady

Joe Biden scares me. He doesn’t scare me like Trump scares me. With Trump it’s visceral, as one might experience standing on a beach, knowing there’s not enough time to avoid the tsunami that’s barreling your way. With Joe it’s more like not knowing what your favorite uncle is going to do to screw up Thanksgiving dinner, yet knowing that screw up may lead you to the beach.

Only days before the Virginia Primary Joe had been expected to trail Bernie Sanders, perhaps even come in third behind Mike Bloomberg. Yet he ended up crushing the competition with a record setting turnout. Huh? Joe spent money in his Virginia campaign in amounts equivalent to that found in Bloomberg’s limousine cushions.

The postmortem on that contest in Virginia, and really echoed around Super Tuesday, seems to clearly point in one direction – Trump. I can’t seem to forget a young and frank reporter for The Daily Beast, Betsy Woodruff Swan, pronouncing late last year that “a potted plant could beat Trump” in November 2020. I think it stuck with me because it felt like comforting hubris from a rising generation.

After Super Tuesday, the truth in her prediction may be getting ready to land for real. The outstanding question then is the runway long enough? Enter Joe Biden, who, all things being equal, will be the Democratic nominee; his illogical cache soaring like the Tesla stock price.

Joe Biden was the presumptive favorite at the beginning of this race going back to early 2019, even before he announced he was in it. Trump also bought into it, as we all became painfully aware with the Donald’s impeachment. Biden’s name recognition was without peers in the Democratic field, better even than Bernie’s. Then the characteristics that made him unappealing in his two previous runs for the Presidency set in, with an added distraction only doddering age could enhance. He was positioned to swan dive after the Nevada primary.

Democratic moderates dominated the winnowed field by late 2019 but couldn’t put together a coherent message that could compete with Bernie’s intractable, yet colorful, ode to revolution. As competent candidates dropped out, one after the other, the electorate and Democratic Party realists started getting nervous. Those who were not excited about revolution began to think there might be something worse than a potted plant. This was especially true with African-American voters.

It’s entirely reasonable to argue that the last moderate standing, whomever, would have enjoyed the same triumph that Biden did. Biden won in states he had not even campaigned in! It certainly appears that fear drove voters to the polls; the fear of that four year tsunami headed our way. However, I’m suspecting that the fear that comes with Joe Biden might be just beginning.

Joe has been notorious for decades in his singular inability to think before he speaks. We should be used to it, right (?), and not just with Joe. There is no politician in audible recorded history that is as inarticulate as Donald Trump. Add to that his psychotic narcissism and you have someone who’s dumb meter is equally matched by his irrational confidence.  

Trump supporters know he’s dumb, many also know he’s stupid, but he’s their kind of dumb and stupid. Why? Because he’s clever enough to tap into their emotions, and that’s all it takes. Biden doesn’t have that luxury.

We know that Joe is not dumb or stupid. That isn’t necessarily a good thing. When Joe says he’s running for the Senate when he’s running for President, or shouts out “Eruf ad lowsink n give barly ovr thmens so hemtaro ephriten” during a victory speech, you could possibly be left with one uncomfortable conclusion – he’s pitifully incompetent. As a younger man it was easier to laugh through his gaffes or his speech impediments. As a Presidential candidate who will hold that office into his eighties (remember Ronald Reagan, who was constantly chided for his age, ended his Presidency at a younger age than Biden would be entering into it), such gaffes take on a different meaning.

Joe doesn’t have to do a whole lot for the Trump war machine to drown the electorate in displays of perceived incompetence. The mad dash to crown Biden with the Democratic mantle might very well end up being a house of cards…and it scares me. With each foot to mouth I hear I’ll be afraid to look down and see my feet buried in the sand. Absent that he is POTUS #46. If he manages it anyway we can only hope he announces a year from now that he will be a one term President. There is no way he could pull this off twice four years older than he is right now.

There is one thing that Biden has that gives me a real beam of hope – Jill Biden. That woman is serious business. Highly educated, sensitive, and articulate, she has in her possession both an attractive personality and appearance. I’d pit her against Donald Trump any day of the week. And poor Melania…don’t even go there. So no matter what happens, I’m voting for Jill…and I hope everyone else does as well.