Lacking Faith

The “War to end all wars” reached its conclusion in November 1918 and was ratified by treaty on June 28, 1919. In less than 20 years the world would be embroiled again in a conflict exponentially greater and deadlier.  Since WWII ended there has been no world alliances fermenting military conflict for 72 years and counting.

There is no single reason for the disparity in what happened then and what happened since. However, there are consistent themes that provide important explanations for that disparity, and also for many regional violent engagements that have occurred since 1945. Donald Trump, for whatever reasons, embodies one today.

The outstanding difference between the aftermaths of the two World Wars of the last century was the treatment of vanquished. After WWI penalties and punitive controls were mandated, designed to restrict the losers (primarily Germany) from gaining military and economic strength. After WWII the losers (primarily Germany, Italy, and Japan) were aided by the Allies to strengthen their economies. This was accomplished largely through the support of regulated free enterprise.

Where that emphasis did not occur, such as in Eastern Europe, resulted in the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union and is prima fascia evidence of what best controls authoritarian adventurism and tyranny…prosperity.

The lesson of the two World Wars, the evolution of Germany, Italy, and Japan, and the protracted and failed conflicts in North Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, and Afghanistan are confirmation that Donald Trump and the hawks he has surrounded himself with are the embodiment of historical ignorance.

Ironically, they, along with the Republican Party, also show a pitiful lack of faith in the one human endeavor they view almost religiously, namely Free Enterprise.

The Iran “Deal”, an agreement known as the JCPOA, was designed to put nuclear weapon development on hold in Iran. It also allowed economic development in Iran without foreign impediment.  That aspect, Iranian economic growth, was a main factor Trump (with the brain of a small weasel) used as a reason to scuttle the deal. I believe just the opposite to be true.

If nuclear weapons are to be viewed as unnecessary two things must occur. There can be no legitimate threat of nuclear attack and there must be a powerful economic interest by a nation’s population to resist conflict.  Evidence Australia, which was well along the path to building nuclear weapons. It ended its development lacking both those motivations.

Iran, an educated nation by Middle Eastern standards, has shown a drift toward moderate behavior in its internal governance even during the short period since sanctions have been lifted, evidenced by the reelection of Hassan Rouhani as President, even with the active resistance of the hard line Islamic faction supported by the current Ayatollah.

Nothing neutralizes radical religious belief more than prosperity.

Over a 12 year period of growing prosperity there would be more likelihood of a Iran losing interest in developing nuclear weapons. However, a nation with reasonable resources and allies (like oil and Russia) and a destitute population, use to sacrifice, would have fertile ground for unification against a common external enemy.

Trump's actions will only harden radical control over the Iranian people. If the US wants a true nuclear free Middle East it should start by requiring the participation of Israel in denuclearization.

Instead Trump looks to North Korea as his path to adoration while trashing the Middle East.  To the chant Nobel Nobel Nobel by his uneducated, uniformed, and misguided followers, he said, “…what did I have to do with (bringing peace) to Korea?….How about everything”. Whatever happens in North Korea over the decades will also depend on prosperity, but it isn’t going to happen during Trump’s watch.

Kim Jong-un might agree to many things, especially if it results in the removal of the American military from the Korean peninsula.  What we won’t see is any on the ground verification of whatever North Korea might agree to.  If Donald Trump wants to take credit for “everything that happens” it will be justified by the disgraceful way this buffoon of a President can be manipulated by his own narcissistic ego.