The 2018 Debate

I have recently spent time considering what this 2018 political season will be focusing on. Disappointingly, the target is likely to be the usual…manipulating emotions. Trying to appeal to reason is a righteous pursuit, but like choosing good eats, taste usually wins out over nutrition. It’s all about motivating those only marginally paying attention.

Those of us who are continually dumbfounded by the three ring circus performed by the Trump Administration are nearly in a panic over our desire to bring some normalcy back to American governance. Motivation to neutralize Trump is a given and flipping Congress is the answer.

Starting with the Woman’s March in January 2017 to the teen’s marching for gun control this spring (and all the exhaustion in between), the Democratic candidates need only get out in front of the bandwagon. I’ll be joining with time and money.

Now what about the Republicans? 

The Obama hating, Fox only, Trump loyalists are solid, but they really only represent a minority of the electorate in most districts, including those districts which are generally deemed Conservative.  What are Republicans going to use to detract and deflect attention away from The Donald? What are their big tickets for firing the emotions of the Center Right?  I’ll tell you one.

Like the rise of dormant Cicadas, the debate over abortion will once again take center stage.

You might recall that during the 2016 national election the issue of abortion was barely touched. Trump and those running on his lead didn’t need it, or perhaps even want it given Trump’s history on the subject. They instead conjured the specter of rabid immigrants, “crooked lock-her-up Hillary”, and fake non-Fox news to marshal the troops. They had a tsunami of bogus social media hits to fire up the faithful (with a little help from das Comrades).  It obviously worked.

Not so easy this go-around.

The reason Republicans will fall back on their Old Faithful is that there is little else. Even Fiscal Conservatism has tanked under the massive deficits the Republicans have passed. Also, it is because Conservatives have successfully molded the abortion debate into a slam dunk. To date they have won the war of verbal identification and you can expect they’ll be going back to that bank for further withdrawals.

Democrats had better pay attention because this issue electrifies too many people who vote on this one purely emotional issue without regard to health, safety, Economy, and every other issue critical to functioning government.

Even in the general discussion the camps on both sides routinely refer to it as “anti-abortion” and “pro-abortion”.  In that debate the Democrat has lost even before reaching the podium. The fact is that everyone is “anti-abortion”.  No woman gets pregnant because she wants to have an abortion. 

The Right to Life people don’t want that fact brought into the debate.  The reality of a common purpose, essentially the overall reduction of abortions, is antithetical to what Right to Life supporters are actually (often unwittingly) pursuing: the righteous satisfaction of emotional confrontation. 

Republicans politicians know this and have been cashing in on it for decades. Democrats better begin understanding that it works.

Democratic candidates around the Nation need to stop ignoring this issue. They should embrace the issue pointing out that the conflict and lack of dialogue itself is the most “pro-abortion” aspect of it. Right to Life supporters are more than equally responsible for unnecessary pregnancy terminations.

Democratic candidates need to respect the tragedy of abortion and recognize that those choosing to oppose abortion personally have a legitimate emotional reaction to it. They also need to support common sense restrictions on abortion such as limiting non-health related abortions to the period of non-viability (currently the first two trimesters or 6 months).

Perhaps then Conservatives (especially Christian Conservatives) might begin to accept that legally penalizing abortions has never worked from the time humans first figured out abortions were possible. Rather they only restricted abortions for poor women, who either accepted their fate or went to back alleys to terminate the pregnancy and possible themselves.

They also might drop their inane arguments against contraception or their hypocritical judgments opposing sex generally. Both deserve a big Charlie Brown GOOD GRIEF!

If Right to Life Conservatives want to make a difference and reduce the number of abortions then they should start working with those who want to provide education, health care, and contraception to young and poor women. Progressive Democrats better get ready to provide that olive branch or be the victims of mindless manipulated emotion.

Lacking Faith

The “War to end all wars” reached its conclusion in November 1918 and was ratified by treaty on June 28, 1919. In less than 20 years the world would be embroiled again in a conflict exponentially greater and deadlier.  Since WWII ended there has been no world alliances fermenting military conflict for 72 years and counting.

There is no single reason for the disparity in what happened then and what happened since. However, there are consistent themes that provide important explanations for that disparity, and also for many regional violent engagements that have occurred since 1945. Donald Trump, for whatever reasons, embodies one today.

The outstanding difference between the aftermaths of the two World Wars of the last century was the treatment of vanquished. After WWI penalties and punitive controls were mandated, designed to restrict the losers (primarily Germany) from gaining military and economic strength. After WWII the losers (primarily Germany, Italy, and Japan) were aided by the Allies to strengthen their economies. This was accomplished largely through the support of regulated free enterprise.

Where that emphasis did not occur, such as in Eastern Europe, resulted in the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union and is prima fascia evidence of what best controls authoritarian adventurism and tyranny…prosperity.

The lesson of the two World Wars, the evolution of Germany, Italy, and Japan, and the protracted and failed conflicts in North Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, and Afghanistan are confirmation that Donald Trump and the hawks he has surrounded himself with are the embodiment of historical ignorance.

Ironically, they, along with the Republican Party, also show a pitiful lack of faith in the one human endeavor they view almost religiously, namely Free Enterprise.

The Iran “Deal”, an agreement known as the JCPOA, was designed to put nuclear weapon development on hold in Iran. It also allowed economic development in Iran without foreign impediment.  That aspect, Iranian economic growth, was a main factor Trump (with the brain of a small weasel) used as a reason to scuttle the deal. I believe just the opposite to be true.

If nuclear weapons are to be viewed as unnecessary two things must occur. There can be no legitimate threat of nuclear attack and there must be a powerful economic interest by a nation’s population to resist conflict.  Evidence Australia, which was well along the path to building nuclear weapons. It ended its development lacking both those motivations.

Iran, an educated nation by Middle Eastern standards, has shown a drift toward moderate behavior in its internal governance even during the short period since sanctions have been lifted, evidenced by the reelection of Hassan Rouhani as President, even with the active resistance of the hard line Islamic faction supported by the current Ayatollah.

Nothing neutralizes radical religious belief more than prosperity.

Over a 12 year period of growing prosperity there would be more likelihood of a Iran losing interest in developing nuclear weapons. However, a nation with reasonable resources and allies (like oil and Russia) and a destitute population, use to sacrifice, would have fertile ground for unification against a common external enemy.

Trump's actions will only harden radical control over the Iranian people. If the US wants a true nuclear free Middle East it should start by requiring the participation of Israel in denuclearization.

Instead Trump looks to North Korea as his path to adoration while trashing the Middle East.  To the chant Nobel Nobel Nobel by his uneducated, uniformed, and misguided followers, he said, “…what did I have to do with (bringing peace) to Korea?….How about everything”. Whatever happens in North Korea over the decades will also depend on prosperity, but it isn’t going to happen during Trump’s watch.

Kim Jong-un might agree to many things, especially if it results in the removal of the American military from the Korean peninsula.  What we won’t see is any on the ground verification of whatever North Korea might agree to.  If Donald Trump wants to take credit for “everything that happens” it will be justified by the disgraceful way this buffoon of a President can be manipulated by his own narcissistic ego.