‘Why’ has continually
been the unstated question.
The
news coverage on the Russian intervention into the 2016 US Presidential
election and its possible connections to the Trump campaign has blanketed the
Nation for months and the end is nowhere in sight. However, acceptable reasons for
the Russian intervention have been absent.
Rather
than speculate on a purpose for the political “attack” by Russia, the reason
for Russia’s foreign policy has been discounted as business as usual. 1960s
logic such as Russia is our enemy, Putin is evil, or why wouldn’t they (?) answer nothing.
Also
to suggest that Putin merely wanted to undermine Clinton’s expected Presidency
understates the motives of an authoritarian government in power for seventeen
years. A handicapped Clinton might have been solace, but no prize. Now Trump…he
was a prize!
Putin
(et al) did not decide to cyber attack the US election, nor infiltrate Trump
and his inner circle to gain “assets” as part of some grand scheme to
ultimately befriend the US. The sensibility of such an assumption within the
context of 200 years of western history defies logic.
Even
a chipmunk brain like Trump’s would eventually be forced to understand that,
other than cooperation regarding nuclear weapons, the US has nothing to gain
from building a relationship with a country that is top-down corrupt. Russia is
tiny relative to the US (see Pennyfound: http://pennyfound.blogspot.com/2017/01/manchurian-candidate.html
).
Conversely,
Russia has little to gain from the US. So what is Putin’s long-term objective?
Russia
today is the product of unregulated capitalism injected into a totalitarian
government. The net result has been the systematic extraction of limited wealth
held by the people and government into the hands of a few (popularly known as
the Russian Oligarchs). Since Putin’s
election in 2000, they have succumbed to Putin’s KGB-style of governance. By using raw fear (of violence, disenfranchisement,
or both), Putin has forced the Russian Oligarchy to give up political power
(and a few $billion for himself) in exchange for safety.
When
Jared Kushner or the Trump boys interact with Russian billionaires (i.e.
Russian Oligarchs without political power) they are effectively dealing with V.
Putin. Trump (et.al.), dealing for years in the smoke filled backroom world of
real estate finance and thinking he was running with the big Russian
wolfhounds, has probably been, as stated by former CIA Director John Brennan,
on a path to treason without even knowing it.
Russia’s
interests don’t lie with the US, they lie with Europe. Putin knows that further
secure advancement of his Country and his own power (and wealth) is in Russia
having control over Eastern Europe. The great anathema for him is an expanded
European Union and NATO. His foreign policy to date makes no bones about his
desires. Georgia and Ukraine (including the Crimea) are obvious first steps.
The
United States has been a critical adhesive in European unity for more than 60 years. Without
it the Soviet grip on Eastern Europe might not have been broken when it did.
Putin
is smart enough to know (and Trump dumb enough not to know) that by weakening
that relationship, he hopes to find that taking aggressive actions in Eastern Europe
might be met by only token resistance.
Even just the threat of expansion could equate to economic leverage for
Russia over European natural resource markets or in relieving sanctions.
Trump
has presented himself as no fan of the Western European nations and now
European leaders are openly distancing themselves from Trump’s America. Putin is scoring points and Trump doesn’t
even know he’s out on the court.
Even
with a Trump Presidency (and before the conclusion of Russian investigations)
these two actions could help turn things around:
- The US Congress should pass a joint resolution supporting the European Union on both economic and territorial grounds.
- The damned stupid Brits (like the damned stupid American electorate?) should have a second Brexit referendum (the first was non-binding) to confirm the first, even if they required a 60% majority to change course.
In
the interim, Americans need to flip Congress in 2018. It is so important!