Sunday, January 29, 2017

Manchurian Candidate?


For those not familiar with the term, Manchurian Candidate has become a phrase to reference individuals in high office controlled by a foreign entity. Coined by the book of the same name by Richard Cordon in 1959 (followed by two films), Cordon described an attempt to overthrow the US Government with the use of a brainwashed, sleeper agent-assassin by the Chinese and far Right-wing US government officials.  American heroics win out in the end (of course).

Such stories make for good thrillers, but reality tends to have fewer thrills and more tendencies to plod through traitorous or witless waters.  Modern history shows that subversive intensions may resemble thriller plotlines, but the means to get there (if ever) end up being just so many rolls of the dice.

Lately it’s beginning to appear that Vladimir Putin has been rolling a lot of dice.

An important thing to remember about Russia (I’m talking to you Lindsey Graham): the ideological cold war is over.  The use of Communism as a means to vilify Russia (or China for that matter) is done – stick a fork in it. It was never truly valid anyway since the USSR or China never trucked out a political or economic system that even bared a resemblance to Marxist Socialism.  However, embracing a bogus ideological conflict certainly worked for stirring up the natives on both sides.

Russia, a nation of 144 million people (40% the size of the US), is not our enemy, any more than we are theirs.  We are in competition with them for resources and influence and it’s weighted immensely in our favor.  It’s just unfortunate that hanging over that competition is enough destructive force to destroy humanity many times over.

Russia has continued to embrace a strong authoritarian central government with severe controls (including violence and terror) over internal dissension.  In Ancient Rome this might have worked pretty well, but in modern times such a political system has had short-term success at best. Nevertheless, it looks like the US has taken a giant step in the same direction, and for Putin that works out just fine.

The US economy is mammoth compared to Russia’s.  Russia’s economy (by GDP) is just slightly bigger than Mexico’s (Russia 13% larger), and considerably smaller than Canada’s. The US economy by comparison is 1700% larger than Russia’s.  Putin has no field on which to compete with the US except perhaps in oil, vodka and caviar…well, maybe just caviar.

So what are the thriller-plot intensions of V. Putin anyway? Internally he personally wants to retain power and make money, both of which he is succeeding to do, often times with KGB style brutality and censorship. It has been reasonably estimated he has amassed personal wealth in the tens of billions of dollars.  His influence is self evident. However, in order to maintain both goals, his external aim would logically be to expand his pie (e.g. Ukraine & Georgia) using his disproportionately large military, and neutralize the West (e.g. USA) from interfering.  This is where he starts rolling the dice.

Now just suppose he obtained compromising information and/or documentation on Donald Trump. Even Mr. Spock would find it logical to believe it would be common practice for the Russians to obtain dirt on any high profile Americans they could, especially those who actually spend time in Russia. What kind of gigantic egos do you think might be susceptible to falling prey to that kind of scrutiny? Let me guess…roll the dice.

Perhaps seeds were planted or it was serendipity for Putin, but you can guess he possibly (likely?) went into a Soviet style happy dance when he saw Trump riding down that escalator.  Like everyone else though (including Trump) he probably didn’t believe Trump could win the Presidency, but what the hell…roll the dice.

Hacking Hillary and getting caught was a reasonable gamble with a limited downside, a good roll of the dice. Still, what other assets has Putin used to advance the possibility of a President Trump?  The flattery was useful and I’m sure it was breaking them up with laughter in the Kremlin as they listened to Trumps comments, but what backdoor efforts might have been made to make the White House a partially owned Russian subsidiary?

As yet we don’t have any hard verification, but the circumstantial evidence continues to mount up.

With Trump’s campaign for the nomination floundering under the amateur management of Lewandowski, how did Trump come up with savvy Paul Manafort who successfully took the Trump campaign through its Mid-Atlantic one-two punch?  Just as mysteriously, when Manafort’s strong connections to Russia started to generate scrutiny he was summarily fired and disappeared (note Lewandowski remained within Trump circles).  Should we wonder who really fired him? Did Trump ever fire The Apprentice who sold the most hotdogs? I think not - roll the dice.

Now when the impossible has became reality and Putin basked in the glow of success (note his response to further US sanctions was to invite American children to his Christmas party), we start to get wind of, perhaps, some of that earlier craps rolled via Britain’s Mi-6 straight into FBI addendums. Did the Russians manage to squirrel away some nasty stuff on The Donald years ago? Why would we think that?

Mike Flinn as the new National Security Advisor is one reason. He was so comfortable in his relationship to the Kremlin that he got on the phone to “do nice” with the Russian ambassador right after sanctions had been levied against them. But even more compelling is the odd-ball choice of non-diplomat, ex-CEO of Exxon Mobil Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State, who is so honored by Putin as to receive their highest non-Russian award; the Award of Friendship.  You can just feel the love.  

Note that in any world we all thought existed, Tillerson’s relationship to Russia would have totally disqualified his appointment as head of the State Department.  That Republicans have jumped ship from that world we knew is gut-wrenching.

Do I think that Flinn or Tillerson are sleeper agents worthy of their own episode on The Americans?  Frankly no.  Still, these are men whose opinions regarding the US relationship to Russia will matter more than Trumps, as the TV-schooled, Twitter King makes good on his promise to defer the running of the Nation. When Russia continues to expand its control (e.g. Ukraine), don’t look for Tillerson, as the leader of US foreign policy, to join with European condemnation.

Was Donald Trump a Manchurian Candidate? Not in a Hollywood sense, except perhaps if you could inject a Manchurian Candidate into a Three Stooges movie. However, to the extent Russia is holding some filthy dirt on The Donald (which I personally believe is likely) and, of course, has the evidence of their relationship, it may make Trump as close to a Manchurian Candidate as Putin could hope for.

No comments: