Predicting the Unpredictable

Tim Kaine had a lost opportunity last Tuesday night in his “debate” with Mike Pence. No, he actually had several lost opportunities in failing to present himself to the American people as someone with a broad view of this election.

Instead, contrary to his personality and demeanor which is well known in this State, he followed the Clinton campaign strategy to try and score points by aggressively trapping Pence into contradicting Trump’s positions or to make him fumble by agreeing with the Trump absurd-o-mania.

Score points with whom?

Trump’s core support is baked in. Changing their view of Trump by pointing out the obvious is like trying to make the yoke of a hardboiled egg runny by cooking it longer. Even so called “independents” are saturated with the Donald’s endless parade of psychotic observations, opinions, and predictions.

Sure Trump won’t release his tax returns, but at this point no one expects him to.  I don’t. That train has left the station, along with all the other trains, boats, and planes that represent the disgraceful candidacy of Donald Trump.

Someone with an audience needs to step up and begin a discussion not solely directed on what a troubled person such as Trump has said and done to define himself so crudely, but what he represents to the Republican Party specifically, and the ideologically conservatives in general. These are things that will still exist after the Donald is left on history’s political trash heap.

There are numerous points that can be illuminated. From his emphasis on not being “politically correct” to broaden nuclear warhead proliferation to torture to tax breaks for the wealthy to ethnic profiling to….oh hell, you know what I mean.  It’s all been out there for months.

In this posting I want to reflect on one little subtle claim Trump has made that makes a big difference.

On numerous occasions at rallies or in interviews Trump has taken pride in making a specific claim about himself.  “I am unpredictable” he has stated in very simple terms. He has taken specific satisfaction in applying this characteristic to how he would engage in foreign affairs, but he has liberally applied it to how he approaches any “deal”.

This embracing of unpredictability is not a small thing.  Predictability is the single most important counterbalance to chaos. To advocate unpredictability is to advocate for chaos. This is what Trump believes and, for once, I believe him.

In our social world we cannot predict with certainty, but it is important that one should not equate predictability with certainty.  Certainty is reserved for physical law.  Predictability is what we aspire to in business, government, and our personal lives.  Without it no business could survive or even begin, government could not create useful legislation, the military would run amok, and relationships could not coalesce.

Most human endeavors begin with an assessment of the outcome. The greater confidence in the predicted outcome the less we are encumbered by risk.  When there is less sense of risk there is less anxiety and a greater probability of achieving goals.  Chance and error do enough to undermine our predictions; we don’t need national leaders to empower pandemonium as a quality of government.

Mixing unpredictability with nuclear weapons, for example, is virtually a formula for the annihilation of the human species.

I’ll make these predictions if Trump is elected: the stock market will drop precipitously over the next four years, the housing market will collapse, racial and ethnic instability will increase dramatically, the United States will become isolated among nations, deficits and (therefore) the National Debt will soar, and those that view the United States as a pariah will be elated and feel justified.

These, I believe, would occur not because Trump is misogynistic or a racist or a narcissist or simply coarse and vulgar at every level.  These things would happen because he is unpredictable and, as they say, the fish rots from the head.

I heard one commentator describe people casting a vote for Trump as them throwing little Molotov Cocktails at the government. I think that image works. A random bombing without thought of the consequence is exactly where the Donald wants to be.