The Referendum

A debate could rage for another year regarding the qualities of one presidential candidate over the other.  I certainly see an obvious outcome to that debate as the weaknesses of Mitt Romney and the radical Republican philosophies are profound.  However, the real identifiable outcomes of this election can be boiled down to three distinct choices, which are the true referendums of this election:

1)     The Supreme Court – The choice of the next President will determine whether the Supreme Court will become a socially Conservative judicial body or remain balanced.  Elect Mitt Romney and likely justices Ginsburg and Kennedy will be replaced by men or women more resembling Justice Alito.  This will impact a host of social and security decisions from abortion to marriage to privacy to drugs to regulations to political funding and beyond, and it will do so indefinitely. The ramifications could be immense.  

2)     Health Care – Although Romney has proclaimed like a conquering Caesar that “on day one” he will remove the Affordable Health Care Act (AHCA), it is unlikely that he would or could.  Still, Obama during this election process has repeatedly failed to point out what was really important about the AHCA. The real importance is not where the Act has taken us to; rather it is where it has taken us from.  It is a flawed insurance reform law created with senseless compromise, failing to adequately address the most difficult problem – cost.  However, where this country was prior to AHCA was truly insane and getting worse (see this blog Health Care…No Relief in Sight Aug 26, 2008) and the AHCA at least got us to take a step out of the crazy house.  The election of Romney would begin to work us back to reinforcing a dominant for-profit health care system, which primarily benefits a select minority of the Country, and delaying by many years the necessary evolution to universal and affordable healthcare.  Such health care is simply not possible without centrally controlled costs in lieu of massive debt and/or services denied.

3)     Taxes – This is the only referendum that is a quantitative reality immediately after the election.  If Romney is elected the Bush tax cuts will be extended, if Obama is reelected they will be modified to lapse for upper income Americans.  It doesn’t matter what the makeup of Congress will be, as nether party will allow taxes to rise in the short term for lower income families.  The bigger and less definitive referendum, though, will be in how we address the use of taxes going forward. Unless Romney got working majorities in both Houses (including a super majority in the Senate – which is hardly likely) he would not be able to carry out his ridiculous 20% cut plan. He’s probably hoping he couldn’t. However, he would hold back any increase in revenues from income.  Instead, as he did in Massachusetts, he will start generating revenue through fees and excise taxes targeting his famed 47% as well as massive cuts to services.  To do otherwise would continue to balloon the debt.  Despite his political saber rattling, he won’t increase the military budget.  That’s just more cubic feet of what Jon Stewart calls Romney’s bullshit mountain.  If Obama is elected he needs to make the case for expanding the progressive tax system we have and that the public services we purchase with those tax dollars have at least the same value to the average citizen as anything they purchase in the private sector, and perhaps more.

So that’s it, the real choice with this election.  Most other issues, including jobs, gas, wages, energy, crime and birth control, to name a few, overstate the power the President has to effect change. The rest, such as character or honesty or personality or leadership are just subjective enough to keep the debate going, but I’m tired of the debate…how about you?