It wouldn’t be easy, that’s for sure. But if there’s a chance that Eric Cantor could be voted out of office it would require, more than anything else, the ability to make the truth believable.
Virginia’s 7th Congressional District has been a bastion for Conservative politicians, Republican or Democrat, at least since its re-creation in 1935. Although demographics have changed dramatically since the Great Depression, gerrymandering has kept the 7th securely Conservative, which for the past 40 years has also meant Republican. It is safe to assume that a proudly self-identified Liberal need not apply for the job.
History, therefore, leaves one to suppose that any choosing for the office needs to occur at the Party level, with the nomination, if it occurs at all. Yes, it would be a reasonable supposition - but not necessarily this year.
What Makes This Year Different: 1-2-3
First - Eric Cantor is the Republican nominee. It is hard to study the history of this District and find any former Congressman more ineffectual in representing his/her constituents than Eric Cantor. His entire career, since being anointed by his predecessor and mentor Rep. Thomas Bliley, has been directed almost exclusively to maneuvering himself within the Republican Party. He has used the indifference of his constituency like a blank check to pursue his climb in the Republican hierarchy under the radar, and with notable success. Only in this term, with his ascension to that of Majority Leader, has he truly gone public. However, instead of working to use his office to govern (in any direction) he has only used it to espouse an extreme ideological vision which has proven to be a metaphor for incompetent governing. One need only read his egotistical manifesto Young Guns to understand.
His early campaign commercials (just out) which tout his “record” as that of a job creator may work in the dark recesses of some ad agency, but are laughable in the light of day. He has provided virtually no leadership that would create jobs or anything else for that matter. He is a finger-in-the-wind politician. One day he supports TARP, then as the Tea Party gets hot he riles against “bailouts”. Because he is so obviously shallow in his aspirations, and for his choice of advocating an extreme Conservative ideology he is vulnerable. Yesterday’s Conservative is today’s Moderate, and a Moderate can beat Eric Cantor.
Second - there are extraordinarily distinct issues that make this year’s elections (State and National) a potential referendum. If Cantor can be clearly identified with the losing side of that referendum then it puts his re-election further at risk. The primary issues that have actual bills (i.e. laws) already in place which will be impacted by the 2012 elections are the Bush Tax Cuts and the Affordable Health Care Act.
The Bush Tax Cuts are at the heart of another obvious truth: that the concentration of wealth in the United States has increased beyond any historical precedent, even including the era of robber baron industrialists of the 19th century. A great part of what has made this no-man’s land of economic inequality so invisible to the general population is the tremendous amount of personal and governmental deficit spending (incl. sub-prime mortgages) that has propped up the (now identified) 99% economically, albeit on crutches. This includes, of course, so-called entitlements. Generally, Eric Cantor and his Young Guns solution is to solidify and protect this concentration of wealth by correcting the excesses of government spending totally through reductions in government services. He has signed the Norquist no-tax pledge in blood. Even many of the Conservatives in the Virginia 7th know that a moderate approach to fiscal responsibility includes both expense reduction AND revenue increases. Cantors position on the Bush Tax Cuts should disenfranchise him from every constituent not bent on shooting himself in the foot.
Regardless of one’s position on the Affordable Health Care Act (aka Obamacare), it did one undeniable thing. It moved this nation away from the status quo in health care. Cantor’s published opinion is that we need to go back. During the health care debate he, along with the Republican leadership, went to the floor of Congress to rage against changes to “the best health care system on earth”, repeating such countless times. The undeniable truth is that, except for the very rich, the US has the worst health care system of any major industrial economy in the world. Faced with the specifics of that reality Cantor has little to defend. Based on cost, inclusion, statistical results, who benefits financially, and just plain frustration and anxiety our health care system is indefensible. The candidate who argues to move forward on health care instead of going in reverse will win that debate.
Third - Eric Cantor is the poster child for a dysfunctional government. This should be a slam dunk. Most moderates (aka 1970-1999 Conservatives) actually understand that Government (in particular the Federal Government) has an important role in a healthy system of free enterprise. They have seen politicians like Cantor spend and borrow for absurd and tragic political adventures (Iraq war for example), bail out the individuals and institutions that, through greed, nearly destroyed this country economically (TARP), and then work to remove a President from office by effectively shutting down government under the banner of some quasi-Libertarian, Tea Party style ideology. We have all seen this happen, and the polls show that the 99% at least don’t like it and will no longer support it.
Eric Cantor, due to his desire for recognition and power, needs to be removed from office perhaps more than any other Representative in Congress. The people in this 7th Congressional District of Virginia can send a message to the rest of the nation, and set the standard. That’s why this is the year.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
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